204 Elderberry Dr

Four Corners, FL 33897

$400,000D+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,505 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,092/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$450
• HOA: −$5
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$649
• Net cashflow: $-110/mo
• Annual: $-1,322/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (22.7% below list).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $309k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $330 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#453 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bella Citta (940 students, 35% FRL); Lake Alfred Polytech Academy (math 41% / reading 43%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 645 students, 59% FRL); Davenport High School (2,333 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 648 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $256k; list at $400k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Four Corners — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,092/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 926% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.