615 N Fourth St

Ganado, TX 77962

$60,000B+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $921/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $281/mo
• Annual: $3,375/yr
• Cap rate: 11.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.09%
• DSCR: 1.89
• 1% rule: 1.54%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $281 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($921 rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($415 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#70 in TX, #2,570 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ganado ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #345 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.
• Jackson County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $60k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.