4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
2,112 sqft ·
Built 1880
· Other
· Active
· 57 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,333/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$760
Tax + insurance
−$205
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$280
Net cashflow
$88/mo
Annual
$1,054/yr
Cap rate
7.02%
Cash-on-cash
2.60%
DSCR
1.12
1% rule
0.92%
Cash to close
$40,600
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $145k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (8.1% below list).
It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $133k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#887 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
Shamokin Area SD (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #450 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Shamokin Area El Sch (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,146 of 1,518 statewide, top 76%, 832 students, 100% FRL); Shamokin Area Ms (math 12% / reading 40%, grade F, #412 of 512 statewide, top 81%, 346 students, 100% FRL); Shamokin Area Hs (math 42% / reading 30%, grade F, #300 of 437 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 57% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (1.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 11.4% in Shamokin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-4XEESZA0HAAVQS
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29