5188 W Ashlan

Fresno, CA 93727

$199,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,295 sqft · Built 1973 · Townhouse · Active · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,440/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$332
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $152/mo
• Annual: $1,829/yr
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $199k. Condition is rated average.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Central Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #345 of 517 in CA (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Teague Elementary (608 students, 92% FRL); Glacier Point Middle (math 24% / reading 75%, grade C, #98 of 498 statewide, top 21%, 873 students, 86% FRL); Central East High (math 20% / reading 41%, grade F, #710 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 2,061 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 58% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate: bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor: landscaping — bare yard, needs landscaping