5188 W Ashlan · Fresno, CA 93727

$199,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,295 sqft · Condo · 123 Days on market

Built 1973 Average condition $154/sqft · 29% below area Est $279k · 29% under $400/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath, two-story PUD offering a practical layout and comfortable living spaces. Newer AC and Heating system will help with energy conservation. The floor plan features well-sized bedrooms and a functional design that makes everyday living easy and efficient. Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and everyday services, this home provides quick access to major streets and freeways, making commuting and daily errands straightforward. The community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for buyers seeking convenience and simplicity.

Key facts

• $400 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1973

Tags

• NEWER AC AND HEATING SYSTEM
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR STREETS
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIFESTYLE
• CENTRALLY LOCATED FRESNO CONDO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $199k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Central Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #345 of 517 in CA (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.94%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,906
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -28.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,443
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,166
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93727

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,479 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,247

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4109 N Cornelia Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,375	$1.38	43d	1	0.19mi
5595 W Holland Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1254	$2,150	$1.71	43d	1	0.48mi
5661 W Donner Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1497	$2,600	$1.74	16d	1	0.62mi
6338 N Cecelia Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,050	$1.81	1d	1	0.63mi
5323 W Garland Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1270	$3,200	$2.52	23d	1	0.69mi
5473 W Santa Ana Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	19d	1	0.78mi
3572 N Blythe Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1026	$2,095	$2.04	1d	6	0.80mi
4781 N Polk Ave Unit 135 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.5	1034	$1,400	$1.35	23d	1	0.85mi
5860 W Santa Ana Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,495	$2.11	43d	1	0.98mi
5860 W Santa Ana Ave Fresno, CA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1123	$2,395	$2.13	1d	2	0.98mi
5068 W Mission Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	43d	1	1.06mi
5860 W Santa Ana Ave Unit 102 Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1180	$2,495	$2.11	43d	1	1.07mi
3433 N Gorma Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,925	$1.68	3d	1	1.09mi
4026 N Brent Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,800	$1.75	43d	1	1.18mi
6461 W Austin Ave Unit NA Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,900	$1.81	1d	1	1.24mi
6461 W Austin Way Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,900	$1.81	44d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    status Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath, two-story PUD offering a practical layout and comfortable living spaces. Newer AC and Heating system will help with energy conservation. The floor plan features well-sized bedrooms and a functional design that makes everyday living easy and efficient. Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and everyday services, this home provides quick access to major streets and freeways, making commuting and daily errands straightforward. The community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for buyers seeking convenience and simplicity.

16. 2026-03-12
    price $199,000 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath, two-story PUD offering a practical layout and comfortable living spaces. Newer AC and Heating system will help with energy conservation. The floor plan features well-sized bedrooms and a functional design that makes everyday living easy and efficient. Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and everyday services, this home provides quick access to major streets and freeways, making commuting and daily errands straightforward. The community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for buyers seeking convenience and simplicity.

17. 2026-02-16
    price $215,000 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath, two-story PUD offering a practical layout and comfortable living spaces. Newer AC and Heating system will help with energy conservation. The floor plan features well-sized bedrooms and a functional design that makes everyday living easy and efficient. Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and everyday services, this home provides quick access to major streets and freeways, making commuting and daily errands straightforward. The community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for buyers seeking convenience and simplicity.

18. 2026-02-14
    listed $225,000 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath, two-story PUD offering a practical layout and comfortable living spaces. Newer AC and Heating system will help with energy conservation. The floor plan features well-sized bedrooms and a functional design that makes everyday living easy and efficient. Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and everyday services, this home provides quick access to major streets and freeways, making commuting and daily errands straightforward. The community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for buyers seeking convenience and simplicity.

19. 2026-01-30
    listed $225,000 Active
20. 2026-01-30
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,379
• − Management: −$2,379
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$732
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$176
• After-tax cash flow: $2,370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab

This two-story PUD has a moderate level of rehab needed, primarily in the kitchen and bathroom. Upgrading these areas would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor landscaping — bare yard, needs landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom would increase both resale and rental value
• Both landscaping — improving the landscaping would increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and in need of replacement	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
landscaping · bare yard, needs landscaping	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both landscaping — improving the landscaping would increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,363
• Composite: 26.08/100
• National rank: #7294
• State rank: #345 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 834,801 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 84,107
• Household income: $87,466
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2745.0

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Asian 27% Two or more races 22% White 18% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -317.54%
• Current HPI: 379.1959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $215,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $225,000 CRMLS