5188 W Ashlan · Fresno, CA 93727

$199,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,295 sqft · Townhouse · 174 Days on market

Built 1973 Average condition 864 sqft lot $154/sqft · 29% below area Est $279k · 29% under $400/mo HOA · 16% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath, two-story PUD offering a practical layout and comfortable living spaces. Newer AC and Heating system will help with energy conservation. The floor plan features well-sized bedrooms and a functional design that makes everyday living easy and efficient. Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and everyday services, this home provides quick access to major streets and freeways, making commuting and daily errands straightforward. The community offers a low-maintenance lifestyle, ideal for buyers seeking convenience and simplicity.

Key facts

• $400 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1973

Tags

• NEWER AC AND HEATING SYSTEM
• QUICK ACCESS TO MAJOR STREETS
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIFESTYLE
• CENTRALLY LOCATED FRESNO CONDO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $199k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Central Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #345 of 517 in CA (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Teague Elementary (608 students, 92% FRL); Glacier Point Middle (math 24% / reading 75%, grade C, #98 of 498 statewide, top 21%, 873 students, 86% FRL); Central East High (math 20% / reading 41%, grade F, #710 of 1,170 statewide, top 61%, 2,061 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 58% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 468 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 65d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $175,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,171
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -28.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5339 W Swift Ave	0.21mi	3/1.8	1,215 (-6%)	1mo	$357,000	$294	78
4605 W Javier	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,385 (+7%)	1mo	$315,000	$227	66
4236 N Cornelia Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-11%)	1mo	$280,000	$243	65
4847 N Delbert Ave	0.85mi	3/2.0	1,335 (+3%)	1mo	$367,000	$275	57
4680 Javier Way	0.33mi	3/2.8	1,559 (+20%)	1mo	$350,000	$225	54
4466 N Cornelia Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,155 (-11%)	2mo	$310,000	$268	54
4665 W Ashcroft Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+22%)	1mo	$370,000	$234	51
4347 N Gorma Ave	0.99mi	3/2.0	1,427 (+10%)	0mo	$410,000	$287	46
4670 N Constance	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,515 (+17%)	2mo	$418,000	$276	40
5634 W Donner Ave	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,523 (+18%)	1mo	$365,000	$240	38
7118 W Willis Ave	1.07mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+21%)	1mo	$440,000	$281	37
2582 N Antioch	1.33mi	4/1.8 (+1)	1,594 (+23%)	2mo	$420,000	$263	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,377
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,339
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93727

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,440 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,247

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $221	+0% $152	+5% $84	+10% $15
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $56	+0% $152	+5% $249	+10% $345
Rate	-1.0pp $253	-0.5pp $203	base $152	+0.5pp $101	+1.0pp $48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4109 N Cornelia Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1726	$2,375	$1.38	93d	1	0.19mi
5083 W Ashcroft Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1113	$2,200	$1.98	33d	1	0.28mi
5595 W Holland Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1254	$2,150	$1.71	93d	1	0.48mi
4436 N Wheeler Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,095	$1.61	19d	1	0.53mi
4436 N Wheeler Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,095	$1.61	33d	1	0.53mi
5661 W Donner Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1497	$2,600	$1.74	65d	1	0.62mi
6338 N Cecelia Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,050	$1.81	15d	1	0.63mi
5323 W Garland Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1270	$3,200	$2.52	73d	1	0.69mi
5473 W Santa Ana Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	69d	1	0.78mi
3572 N Blythe Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1026	$2,095	$2.04	46d	6	0.80mi
4781 N Polk Ave Unit 135 Fresno, CA	2.0	1.5	1034	$1,400	$1.35	73d	1	0.85mi
5860 W Santa Ana Ave Fresno, CA	2.0–3.0	2.5	1123	$2,395	$2.13	15d	2	0.98mi
5860 W Santa Ana Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,495	$2.11	93d	1	0.98mi
5068 W Mission Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,800	$1.33	93d	1	1.06mi
5860 W Santa Ana Ave Unit 102 Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1180	$2,495	$2.11	93d	1	1.07mi
3433 N Gorma Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,895	$1.66	41d	1	1.09mi
3323 N Contessa Ave Fresno, CA	4.0	2.0	1755	$2,910	$1.66	19d	1	1.16mi
4026 N Brent Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,800	$1.75	93d	1	1.18mi
6461 W Austin Way Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,700	$1.69	39d	1	1.24mi
6461 W Austin Ave Unit NA Fresno, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,700	$1.69	35d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 174 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 173 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $199,000 Active 172 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $199,000 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $199,000 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-07-30
   days on market $199,000 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-07-28
    days on market $199,000 Active 163 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $199,000 Active 161 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $199,000 Active 159 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $199,000 Active 158 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $199,000 Active 157 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $199,000 Active 156 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $199,000 Active 155 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 152 DOM
19. 2026-07-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 151 DOM
20. 2026-07-15
    days on market $199,000 Active 150 DOM
21. 2026-07-14
    days on market $199,000 Active 149 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 148 DOM
23. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 147 DOM
24. 2026-07-11
    days on market $199,000 Active 146 DOM
25. 2026-07-10
    days on market $199,000 Active 145 DOM
26. 2026-07-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 144 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 142 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,000 Active 141 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 140 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 138 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 137 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 136 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 135 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $199,000 Active 134 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $199,000 Active 133 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $199,000 Active 132 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $199,000 Active 131 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $199,000 Active 129 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $199,000 Active 127 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $199,000 Active 126 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 123 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $199,000 Active 122 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 121 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $199,000 Active 120 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 118 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 117 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $199,000 Active 115 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 114 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 113 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 112 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,343
• − Management: −$2,343
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$269
• After-tax cash flow: $2,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $32,375–$58,275 screening

This two-story PUD has a moderate level of rehab needed, primarily in the kitchen and bathroom. Upgrading these areas would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of replacement
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — dated and in need of replacement
• Minor landscaping — bare yard, needs landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both kitchen renovation — modernizing the kitchen would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both bathroom renovation — modernizing the bathroom would increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both landscaping — improving the landscaping would increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Teague Elementary Middle Glacier Point Middle C CA #98/498 Nat'l #3,558/14,009 High Justin Garza High

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Unified
• NCES district ID: 0607970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,363
• Composite: 26.08/100
• National rank: #7294
• State rank: #345 of 517 in CA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• County: Fresno County · 1,042,971 people
• City population: 593,114
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• Population (ZIP): 84,107
• Household income: $87,466
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Asian 27% Two or more races 22% White 18% Black 5% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Other Indo-European 6%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -317.54%
• Current HPI: 379.1959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Fresno, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $215,000 CRMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $225,000 CRMLS