345 Thornhill Estates Ln

Irvington, KY 40146

$97,500C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,024/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $135/mo
• Annual: $1,617/yr
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $27,300

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($674 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckinridge County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #51 of 165 in KY (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Breckinridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Breckinridge County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.1% in Irvington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition and may need replacement.
• Major: exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and in need of repainting.
• Major: flooring — The flooring in the interior appears to be worn and in need of replacement.
• Major: interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and need repainting.
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.
• Major: fencing — The fencing is rusted and in need of repair or replacement.