345 Thornhill Estates Ln · Irvington, KY 40146

$97,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Built 1994 Fair condition 9.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 singlewide homes sitting on 9.00 acres with a 24x30 shop with a 14x30 lean-to. Could be fixed up as rentals. One home is 1,064 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on a permanent foundation. The larger home is 1,216 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms on a non-permanent foundation.

Key facts

• 9 acres
• 24x30 shop
• 14x30 lean-to

Tags

• 9 ACRES
• 24X30 SHOP
• 14X30 LEAN-TO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with entry at the front (2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: No utilities listed
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Built in 1994; Metal roof
• Construction: Vinyl and aluminum siding; Built in 1994
• Exterior features: 9-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Both bedrooms located on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; Living room on the first floor; Kitchen on the first floor; No basement
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $98k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.1% in Irvington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#332 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckinridge County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #51 of 165 in KY (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Breckinridge County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($674 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Breckinridge County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $18,700
• Equity at exit: $42,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $56,648
• Equity at exit: $63,536

Cash invested: $27,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40146

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$511
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$122 /mo · $1,462/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $853

Max offer price $97,500

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,375
• Closing costs: $2,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (305 chars)

   2 singlewide homes sitting on 9.00 acres with a 24x30 shop with a 14x30 lean-to. Could be fixed up as rentals. One home is 1,064 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on a permanent foundation. The larger home is 1,216 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms on a non-permanent foundation.

2. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 305-char remark

   Show marketing remark (305 chars)

   2 singlewide homes sitting on 9.00 acres with a 24x30 shop with a 14x30 lean-to. Could be fixed up as rentals. One home is 1,064 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on a permanent foundation. The larger home is 1,216 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms on a non-permanent foundation.

3. 2026-05-07
   listed $97,500 Active

   Show marketing remark (305 chars)

   2 singlewide homes sitting on 9.00 acres with a 24x30 shop with a 14x30 lean-to. Could be fixed up as rentals. One home is 1,064 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on a permanent foundation. The larger home is 1,216 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms on a non-permanent foundation.

4. 2026-05-07
   listed $97,500 Active 305-char remark

   Show marketing remark (305 chars)

   2 singlewide homes sitting on 9.00 acres with a 24x30 shop with a 14x30 lean-to. Could be fixed up as rentals. One home is 1,064 square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 full baths on a permanent foundation. The larger home is 1,216 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms on a non-permanent foundation.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,282
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,462
• − Property taxes: −$1,462
• − Insurance: −$488
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$983
• − Management: −$983
• − Depreciation: −$2,836
• Taxable income: $69
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17
• After-tax cash flow: $1,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home is in fair condition with significant repairs and maintenance needed, including painting, landscaping, and structural repairs. The home has potential for increased value with these improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition and may need replacement.
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is peeling and in need of repainting.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the interior appears to be worn and in need of replacement.
• Major interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and need repainting.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.
• Major fencing — The fencing is rusted and in need of repair or replacement.
• Major HVAC system — The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement or repair.
• Major foundation/structure — The foundation and structure show signs of settling and may need repair or reinforcement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting the exterior and interior — Painting the exterior and interior can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both landscaping and trimming — Landscaping and trimming can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both repairing the roof and HVAC system — Repairing the roof and HVAC system can improve the home's functionality and make it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both repairing the foundation and structure — Repairing the foundation and structure can improve the home's structural integrity and make it more attractive to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The exterior siding is peeling and in need of repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring in the interior appears to be worn and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The interior walls and paint show signs of wear and need repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping is overgrown and in need of trimming and maintenance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
fencing · The fencing is rusted and in need of repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · The HVAC system appears to be old and may need replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · The foundation and structure show signs of settling and may need repair or reinforcement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting the exterior and interior — Painting the exterior and interior can improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both landscaping and trimming — Landscaping and trimming can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both repairing the roof and HVAC system — Repairing the roof and HVAC system can improve the home's functionality and make it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both repairing the foundation and structure — Repairing the foundation and structure can improve the home's structural integrity and make it more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckinridge County
• NCES district ID: 2100720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $42,042
• Composite: 31.2/100
• National rank: #6041
• State rank: #51 of 165 in KY

Livability — Irvington

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #15797

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,297

Population outlook (Breckinridge County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,487 people
• By 2030: 18,994 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 17,825 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 16,640 · -14.6%
• By 2075: 14,155 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 11,696 · -40.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: English 2% Scottish 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Breckinridge

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.3% · R 78.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+51.6 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.68%
• Current HPI: 238.5106
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $97,500 HKARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $97,500 Metro Search MLS