68860 Foley Dr

Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$195,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 192 sqft · Built 1956 · Other · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,177/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $-239/mo
• Annual: $-2,862/yr
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (39.6% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (39.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment D-, health & safety F.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Twentynine Palms Elementary (math 10% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,335 of 1,571 statewide, top 85%, 548 students, 47% FRL); Twentynine Palms Junior High (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #236 of 498 statewide, top 48%, 413 students, 63% FRL); Twentynine Palms High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 729 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 751 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $195k implies a 388% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.