3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
972 sqft ·
Built 1928
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 62 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,493/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$603
Tax + insurance
−$172
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$314
Net cashflow
$405/mo
Annual
$4,859/yr
Cap rate
10.52%
Cash-on-cash
15.09%
DSCR
1.67
1% rule
1.30%
Cash to close
$32,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $58k; list at $115k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,493/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($32k/yr) (locally 6995% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: Exterior siding
— Significant wear and tear
Major: Exterior wood
— Exposed and deteriorating
Major: Debris removal
— Large debris pile in front yard
CashFlowRE · CFR-4YA77Y2CWV7AWQ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29