3219 Gulf St #43

Bakersfield, CA 93203

$8,000D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,219/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$42
• Tax + insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $915/mo
• Annual: $10,979/yr
• Cap rate: 143.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 490.12%
• DSCR: 22.81
• 1% rule: 15.24%
• Cash to close: $2,240

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $8k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $915 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $8k).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $55 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $240 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Beardsley Elementary (suburban): math 7% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #501 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 143.5% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.