3219 Gulf St #43 · Bakersfield, CA 93203

$8,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 480 sqft · Manufactured · 6 Days on market

Built 1972 $17/sqft · 50% below area Est $16k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to Bakersfield MHP - an all ages community. This 2 bedroom, 1 bath home is waiting for it's new owner to fix her up and bring her back to her original glory! Cash Offers Only

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1972
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located at 3219 Gulf Street #43, Bakersfield, CA 93203 (Kern County)
• Financial info: Land lease indicated as 'No' but a land lease amount of $795 is provided
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; no garage
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220-volt outlet in kitchen; Public sewer; Water from a water district
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Single wide model; Built in 1972; Located inside the park
• Construction: Champion make (manufactured home); Metal skirting
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Lot described with 'Other' features

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific built-in kitchen features listed
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Cooling listed as 'Other'
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; Pets allowed; Living and dining areas with unspecified 'Other' features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $8k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $922 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $8k).
• Cap rate 144.6% vs local median 3.6% in Bakersfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#716 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, crime F.
• Beardsley Elementary (suburban): math 7% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #501 of 517 in CA (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $55 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $240 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $8,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 15.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 144.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 494.09%
• DSCR: 22.98
• GRM: 0.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $16,000
• List price: $8,000
• Delta: -50.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3219 Gulf St #43	0.00mi	2/1.0	480 (0%)	1mo	$7,000	$15	99
3219 Gulf St #40	0.06mi	2/1.0	550 (+15%)	4mo	$25,000	$45	69
3219 Gulf St #28	0.04mi	2/1.0	552 (+15%)	21mo	$10,000	$18	56
3219 Gulf St #11	0.04mi	1/1.0 (-1)	420 (-12%)	21mo	$16,000	$38	55
3219 Gulf St #42	0.04mi	2/1.0	552 (+15%)	22mo	$8,000	$14	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 26.65×
• Total profit: $57,460
• Equity at exit: $1,193

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 57.13×
• Total profit: $125,733
• Equity at exit: $692

Cash invested: $2,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93203

• Home prices YoY: -5.4%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 0.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$42
• Tax from tax record: −$3 /mo · $36/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $922

Break-even live

Break-even rent $61

Max offer price $8,000

Occupancy floor 20%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,000
• Closing costs: $240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $36 · $3/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $61 · $5/mo
• Expected delta: +$25/yr (+$2/mo · 69.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 39 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$448
• − Property taxes: −$36
• − Insurance: −$40
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$233
• Taxable income: $11,627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,791
• After-tax cash flow: $8,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beardsley Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0604260
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $28,808
• Composite: 9.63/100
• National rank: #9841
• State rank: #501 of 517 in CA

Livability — Bakersfield

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #21355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bakersfield, CA
• City population: 499,124
• Population (ZIP): 20,571

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 29% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 17% English-only · Spanish 83%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.57%
• Current HPI: 342.8562
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $36 · -43.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.