4729 Turtle Creek Dr

Howell, MI 48843

$100,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $1,097/mo
• Annual: $13,167/yr
• Cap rate: 19.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.03%
• DSCR: 3.09
• 1% rule: 2.26%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#107 in MI, #2,598 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Howell Public Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #116 of 540 in MI (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 3.6% in Howell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.