4729 Turtle Creek Dr · Howell, MI 48843

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · Other · 30 Days on market

Built 1999

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the desirable Burkhart Ridge Manufactured Home Community, this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 4729 Turtle Creek Drive offers modern updates, spacious living, and affordable community living in a prime Howell location. The open-concept floor plan features updated flooring, fresh paint, remodeled bathrooms, and an upgraded kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The spacious primary suite includes a private full bath, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy a large living area perfect for entertaining, plus outdoor space and private parking. Lot rent is $675.00 monthly which includes snow removal on roads, trash, and mosquito / tick spray. New base board trim added to entire home with updated trim throughout. New fire alarms and co2 detectors throughout home. Living room, kitchen, laundry and bathroom have upgraded LPV flooring. Easy to manage landscaping. The community is surrounded by fields in the back providing a peaceful quiet area to enjoy walking. Newer AC unit that is two years old. Both porches used to enter the home have been stained recently and look great! Residents of Burkhart Ridge enjoy access to community amenities including a clubhouse, pool, fitness center, playgrounds, and walking areas, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and expressways. Move-in ready and beautifully updated - this is one you won't want to miss.

Key facts

• Large living area
• Clubhouse
• Community amenities

Tags

• UPDATED FLOORING
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Burkhart Ridge Manufactured Home Community; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 20
• HOA & community: Pets allowed; Community amenities: pool, clubhouse, fitness center, sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Paved road; Community pool; Community clubhouse; Community fitness center; Sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range hood; Stainless steel appliances; Free‑standing refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air; Ceiling fan(s); Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range hood; Stainless steel appliances; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 3.6% in Howell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#107 in MI, #2,598 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Howell Public Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #116 of 540 in MI (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 488 units permitted in Livingston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $98,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.62%
• DSCR: 3.07
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $53,111
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $135,597
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48843

• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $1,088

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4018 Chestnut Crossing Dr Howell, MI	2.0	2.0	1304	$2,015	$1.55	2d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   listing id $100,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $100,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $100,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1454 chars)

    Located in the desirable Burkhart Ridge Manufactured Home Community, this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 4729 Turtle Creek Drive offers modern updates, spacious living, and affordable community living in a prime Howell location. The open-concept floor plan features updated flooring, fresh paint, remodeled bathrooms, and an upgraded kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The spacious primary suite includes a private full bath, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy a large living area perfect for entertaining, plus outdoor space and private parking. Lot rent is $675.00 monthly which includes snow removal on roads, trash, and mosquito / tick spray. New base board trim added to entire home with updated trim throughout. New fire alarms and co2 detectors throughout home. Living room, kitchen, laundry and bathroom have upgraded LPV flooring. Easy to manage landscaping. The community is surrounded by fields in the back providing a peaceful quiet area to enjoy walking. Newer AC unit that is two years old. Both porches used to enter the home have been stained recently and look great! Residents of Burkhart Ridge enjoy access to community amenities including a clubhouse, pool, fitness center, playgrounds, and walking areas, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and expressways. Move-in ready and beautifully updated - this is one you won't want to miss.

17. 2026-05-19
    listed $100,000 Active 1454-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1454 chars)

    Located in the desirable Burkhart Ridge Manufactured Home Community, this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath home at 4729 Turtle Creek Drive offers modern updates, spacious living, and affordable community living in a prime Howell location. The open-concept floor plan features updated flooring, fresh paint, remodeled bathrooms, and an upgraded kitchen with ample cabinet and counter space. The spacious primary suite includes a private full bath, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or a home office. Enjoy a large living area perfect for entertaining, plus outdoor space and private parking. Lot rent is $675.00 monthly which includes snow removal on roads, trash, and mosquito / tick spray. New base board trim added to entire home with updated trim throughout. New fire alarms and co2 detectors throughout home. Living room, kitchen, laundry and bathroom have upgraded LPV flooring. Easy to manage landscaping. The community is surrounded by fields in the back providing a peaceful quiet area to enjoy walking. Newer AC unit that is two years old. Both porches used to enter the home have been stained recently and look great! Residents of Burkhart Ridge enjoy access to community amenities including a clubhouse, pool, fitness center, playgrounds, and walking areas, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, and expressways. Move-in ready and beautifully updated - this is one you won't want to miss.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,021
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $12,187
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,925
• After-tax cash flow: $10,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howell Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2618720
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,453
• Composite: 41.42/100
• National rank: #3473
• State rank: #116 of 540 in MI

Livability — Howell

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #2598

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston County · 121,626 people
• City population: 48,014
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 48,014
• Household income: $94,577
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 644.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,920 people
• By 2030: 209,173 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 216,878 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 217,485 · +7.2%
• By 2075: 217,590 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 197,095 · -2.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Italian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.9) · D 37.4% · R 61.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -23.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.9 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+23.3 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -326.17%
• Current HPI: 180.5058
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $100,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $100,000 REALCOMP