5117 16th Ave

Gulfport, FL 33707

$259,707D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 752 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Pending · 113 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,305/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,362
• Tax + insurance: −$531
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $-71/mo
• Annual: $-857/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.18%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $72,718

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-857/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (11.2% below list).
• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $231k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#151 in FL, #2,285 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gulfport Montessori Elementary School (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,744 of 2,144 statewide, top 82%, 435 students, 86% FRL); Azalea Middle School (math 26% / reading 27%, grade F, #503 of 571 statewide, top 88%, 678 students, 74% FRL); Boca Ciega High School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,423 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 48% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 465 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 14 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $188k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.0% in Gulfport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.