140 Wild Turkey Trl

Long Creek, NC 28457

$255,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,945/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax + insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $20/mo
• Annual: $245/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $71,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $255k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($245/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (23.7% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $195k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pender County Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #66 of 178 in NC (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Malpass Corner Elementary (math 27% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 480 students, 89% FRL); West Pender Middle (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #374 of 475 statewide, top 80%, 179 students, 86% FRL); Heide Trask High (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #352 of 535 statewide, top 68%, 720 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 47% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pender County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 943 units permitted in Pender County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pender County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $190k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.