16310 E 11 Mile Rd

Roseville, MI 48066

$229,800F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,017 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,482/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,205
• Tax + insurance: −$389
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-424/mo
• Annual: $-5,082/yr
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.90%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $64,344

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-424 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (32.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (35.5% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $148k (35.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#258 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, employment D, crime F.
• Roseville Community Schools (suburban): math 11% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #483 of 540 in MI (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roseville High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #622 of 713 statewide, top 88%, 1,216 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 269 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 5.9% in Roseville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.