4409 Patriot Dr

Bismarck, ND 58503

$65,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2013 · Manufactured · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$526
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $558/mo
• Annual: $6,701/yr
• Cap rate: 16.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.82%
• DSCR: 2.64
• 1% rule: 2.92%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $558 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 58% / reading 52%, grade C, #38 of 236 statewide, top 16%, 490 students, 14% FRL); Simle Middle School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #22 of 35 statewide, top 62%, 1,040 students, 20% FRL); South Central Alternative High School (94 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 45% FRL vs 19% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.