4409 Patriot Dr · Bismarck, ND 58503

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured

Built 2013 Est $64k · at est. $526/mo HOA · 28% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a look at this 2013 home in Century Park and ready for a new buyer. Home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Master bath has a jetted tub and walk-in closet. Some new flooring, appliances included. You will enjoy the fenced yard with shed and large deck. Buyer must quality with park prior to closing.

Key facts

• Built 2013

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $558 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 28% of rent.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.92% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.82%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4206 Patriot Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	2mo	$79,900	$66	87
4755 British Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	1mo	$54,000	$44	87
4202 Patriot Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	11mo	$65,000	$53	86
4303 Patriot Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	4mo	$64,900	$51	84
4117 W Arlington Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	1mo	$49,900	$39	82
4773 British Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	8mo	$115,000	$95	81
4731 British Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	11mo	$55,000	$45	79
5051 Redcoat Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	10mo	$56,000	$46	77
4539 Lafayette Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	12mo	$74,900	$59	75
5018 Sumter Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	5mo	$105,000	$82	72
2500 Centennial Rd Lot 240	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	2mo	$45,900	$36	60
5105 Redcoat Loop	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+11%)	11mo	$129,800	$96	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $35,408
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.80×
• Total profit: $123,686
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $586/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$526
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,193

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $595	-5% $577	+0% $558	+5% $540	+10% $522
Rent	-10% $408	-5% $483	+0% $558	+5% $633	+10% $709
Rate	-1.0pp $591	-0.5pp $575	base $558	+0.5pp $542	+1.0pp $524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3504 French St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.5	966	$1,795	$1.86	22d	1	0.77mi
3103 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$1,860	$1.72	22d	6	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $526 · $6,312/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-02-05
   soldstatus Closed 305-char remark

   Show marketing remark (305 chars)

   Take a look at this 2013 home in Century Park and ready for a new buyer. Home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Master bath has a jetted tub and walk-in closet. Some new flooring, appliances included. You will enjoy the fenced yard with shed and large deck. Buyer must quality with park prior to closing.

2. 2025-01-21
   soldstatus Closed 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   Take a look at this 2013 manufactured home located in Century Park in NE Bismarck. Great space with 3 bedroom, 2 baths, master walk-in closet, jetted tub and all appliances included. Enjoy the fenced yard with shed and large deck. Call today.

3. 2025-01-09
   status Pending 305-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   Take a look at this 2013 manufactured home located in Century Park in NE Bismarck. Great space with 3 bedroom, 2 baths, master walk-in closet, jetted tub and all appliances included. Enjoy the fenced yard with shed and large deck. Call today.

4. 2025-01-09
   historical Active Under Contract 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   Take a look at this 2013 manufactured home located in Century Park in NE Bismarck. Great space with 3 bedroom, 2 baths, master walk-in closet, jetted tub and all appliances included. Enjoy the fenced yard with shed and large deck. Call today.

5. 2025-01-07
   listed $64,900 Active 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   Take a look at this 2013 manufactured home located in Century Park in NE Bismarck. Great space with 3 bedroom, 2 baths, master walk-in closet, jetted tub and all appliances included. Enjoy the fenced yard with shed and large deck. Call today.

6. 2025-01-06
   listed $64,900 Active 305-char remark

   Show marketing remark (305 chars)

   Take a look at this 2013 home in Century Park and ready for a new buyer. Home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths. Master bath has a jetted tub and walk-in closet. Some new flooring, appliances included. You will enjoy the fenced yard with shed and large deck. Buyer must quality with park prior to closing.

7. 2021-02-18
   soldstatus
8. 2020-07-02
   listed $49,900
9. 1999-10-04
   soldstatus
10. 1999-08-20
    listed $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $586 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $637 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$51/yr (+$4/mo · 8.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$586
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$6,312
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,400
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,536
• After-tax cash flow: $5,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 814.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scotch-Irish 4% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+464.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-05 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2025-01-21 Sold (MLS) — Badlands BOR MLS
• 2025-01-09 Pending — GNMLS
• 2025-01-09 Contingent — Badlands BOR MLS
• 2025-01-07 Listed $64,900 Badlands BOR MLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed $64,900 GNMLS
• 2021-02-18 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2020-07-02 Listed $49,900 GNMLS
• 1999-10-04 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1999-08-20 Listed $11,500 GNMLS