1525 Cold Spgs #82

Cold Springs, CA 95667

$57,000B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Built 1963 · Manufactured · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,436/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$299
• Tax + insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $741/mo
• Annual: $8,889/yr
• Cap rate: 21.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.70%
• DSCR: 3.48
• 1% rule: 2.52%
• Cash to close: $15,960

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $57k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $57k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $55k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $394 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,305 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Gold Trail Union Elementary (rural): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #396 of 1,400 in CA (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.5%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 2.0% in Cold Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.