1367 Daniels Creek Rd

Collinsville, VA 24078

$175,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,779 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,228/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-55/mo
• Annual: $-664/yr
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-664/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (29.8% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#265 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Henry County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #78 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $175k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Collinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.