1367 Daniels Creek Rd · Collinsville, VA 24078

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,779 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1954 $98/sqft · 6% below area Est $187k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1367 Daniels Creek Rd in the heart of Collinsville! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home has plenty of space. The kitchen has been remodeled with new cabinets, new granite countertops, new lights, and a new sink with a garbage disposal. The laundry and storage room have been remodeled with LVP flooring and new sheetrock walls. The living areas boast the original hardwood floors. Some electrical and some plumbing, both have been updated. The HVAC was replaced in 2022, water heater in 2024, roof in 2023 and gutters in 2025. The private driveway leads to the double car garage around back and nice large back yard. Cash or conventional loans only.

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• New cabinets
• New sink

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• NEW LIGHTS
• NEW SINK
• REMODELED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-55 ($-664/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Collinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#265 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Henry County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #78 of 131 in VA (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 33 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $175k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $122,811 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,100
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -6.47%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
440 Belmont St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,678 (-6%)	1mo	$239,900	$143	70
280 Ikenberry Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,817 (+2%)	15mo	$290,000	$160	68
1343 Daniels Creek Rd	0.02mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,584 (-11%)	24mo	$103,000	$65	52
270 Wheeler Ave	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+7%)	21mo	$149,000	$78	47
162 Knollwood Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,944 (+9%)	6mo	$220,000	$113	44
127 Patsy Ave	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,687 (-5%)	22mo	$203,500	$121	43
50 Williams St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-8%)	16mo	$253,600	$155	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-31,977
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-32,767
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24078

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $419/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,298

Max offer price $165,224

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-6	+0% $-55	+5% $-105	+10% $-154
Rent	-10% $-152	-5% $-104	+0% $-55	+5% $-7	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $-11	base $-55	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-04-11
    listed $180,000 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Welcome to 1367 Daniels Creek Rd in the heart of Collinsville! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home has plenty of space. The kitchen has been remodeled with new cabinets, new granite countertops, new lights, and a new sink with a garbage disposal. The laundry and storage room have been remodeled with LVP flooring and new sheetrock walls. The living areas boast the original hardwood floors. Some electrical and some plumbing, both have been updated. The HVAC was replaced in 2022, water heater in 2024, roof in 2023 and gutters in 2025. The private driveway leads to the double car garage around back and nice large back yard. Cash or conventional loans only.

18. 2019-05-14
    soldstatus $60,000
19. 2019-05-09
    soldstatus $60,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Spacious home located in the center of Collinsville near FC Middle school. Paved driveway leads to a two car garage. Nice backyard for children to play or have a spacious garden. Motivated Sellers!!! Bring all offers!!!! This would be a great starter home.

20. 2019-03-03
    listed $74,900 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Spacious home located in the center of Collinsville near FC Middle school. Paved driveway leads to a two car garage. Nice backyard for children to play or have a spacious garden. Motivated Sellers!!! Bring all offers!!!! This would be a great starter home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $419 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,016/yr (+$85/mo · 242.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$419
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,808
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$914
• After-tax cash flow: $250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101920
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,579
• Composite: 47.02/100
• National rank: #2345
• State rank: #78 of 131 in VA

Livability — Collinsville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #9378

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Collinsville, VA
• City population: 7,217
• Population (ZIP): 7,217

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,903 people
• By 2030: 44,141 · -5.9%
• By 2040: 38,687 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 33,742 · -28.1%
• By 2075: 25,720 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 19,868 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.3% · R 66.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.80%
• Current HPI: 166.2533
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+140.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $180,000 DRRAR
• 2019-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-09 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MHPCAR
• 2019-03-03 Listed $74,900 MHPCAR

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $419 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.