280 NE 173rd St

North Miami Beach, FL 33162

$475,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,027 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,245/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $-205/mo
• Annual: $-2,462/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $439k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (31.7% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($468k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $325k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#71 in FL, #1,177 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gertrude K. Edelman/Sabal Palm (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,773 of 2,144 statewide, top 83%, 504 students, 76% FRL); Andover Middle School (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 452 students, 71% FRL); North Miami Beach Senior High (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,149 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 287 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $475k implies a 631% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,245/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 2509% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.