3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,385 sqft ·
Built 1998
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 105 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,807/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,133
Tax + insurance
−$360
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$380
Net cashflow
$-65/mo
Annual
$-781/yr
Cap rate
5.93%
Cash-on-cash
-1.29%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$60,480
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-781/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (4.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (16.3% below list).
It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $181k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Moulton-Branch Elementary School (math 58% / reading 38%, grade D, #289 of 1,228 statewide, top 24%, 558 students, 71% FRL); Pine Grove Middle School (math 56% / reading 57%, grade B, #48 of 470 statewide, top 10%, 742 students, 50% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $140k; list at $216k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.7% in Bemiss — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-50P55E6C11FFVM
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29