15 Gouinlock St

Warsaw, NY 14569

$99,900A-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,552/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$320
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $382/mo
• Annual: $4,585/yr
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.39%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in NY, #4,662 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warsaw Central School District (town): math 44% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #431 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warsaw Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 376 students, 45% FRL); Warsaw Middle School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 201 students, 53% FRL); Warsaw Senior High School (math 98% / reading 75%, grade A, #342 of 1,100 statewide, top 31%, 229 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 32% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.