15 Gouinlock St · Warsaw, NY 14569

$99,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1890 8,712 sqft lot $69/sqft · 45% below area Est $180k · 45% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a 4 bedroom home in the village of Warsaw? Or a rental property? This is it. Currently being used as a 3 bedroom with a home office. First floor bath and first floor bedroom and laundry may make this an ideal home for you. Thermopane windows throughout the home is a bonus. Situated on a dead end street make this house a draw if you don't want constant traffic passing by.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Historic charm
• Large living room

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• OVERSIZED PANTRY
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• QUIET DEAD END STREET
• HISTORIC CHARM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: 2-story residence; Existing/previously built property
• Construction: Brick, frame, stone, and wood siding construction; Asphalt roof; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Gravel driveway; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 66 x 132)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level; Bedroom 1 on the first floor; Bedroom 2 on the second floor; Bedroom 3 on the second floor; Bedroom 4 on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced air; Gravity heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Bedroom on main level; Has basement with crawl space, partial finish, and sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#289 in NY, #4,662 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Warsaw Central School District (town): math 44% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #431 of 590 in NY (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Wyoming County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Wyoming County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.39%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,075
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -44.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1083 W Buffalo St	0.03mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,564 (+8%)	7mo	$137,964	$88	75
177 Wyoming St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,329 (-8%)	11mo	$235,000	$177	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.09% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $26,767
• Equity at exit: $34,578

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $74,435
• Equity at exit: $46,319

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14569

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,346/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,069

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $439	-5% $410	+0% $382	+5% $354	+10% $326
Rent	-10% $259	-5% $321	+0% $382	+5% $443	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $432	-0.5pp $408	base $382	+0.5pp $356	+1.0pp $330

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    listed $99,900 Active 986-char remark
17. 2023-05-16
    soldstatus $82,000
18. 2023-05-12
    soldstatus $82,000 Closed Sale or Rented 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Looking for a 4 bedroom home in the village of Warsaw? Or a rental property? This is it. Currently being used as a 3 bedroom with a home office. First floor bath and first floor bedroom and laundry may make this an ideal home for you. Thermopane windows throughout the home is a bonus. Situated on a dead end street make this house a draw if you don't want constant traffic passing by.

19. 2023-02-24
    status Pending Sale 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Looking for a 4 bedroom home in the village of Warsaw? Or a rental property? This is it. Currently being used as a 3 bedroom with a home office. First floor bath and first floor bedroom and laundry may make this an ideal home for you. Thermopane windows throughout the home is a bonus. Situated on a dead end street make this house a draw if you don't want constant traffic passing by.

20. 2023-02-14
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Looking for a 4 bedroom home in the village of Warsaw? Or a rental property? This is it. Currently being used as a 3 bedroom with a home office. First floor bath and first floor bedroom and laundry may make this an ideal home for you. Thermopane windows throughout the home is a bonus. Situated on a dead end street make this house a draw if you don't want constant traffic passing by.

21. 2022-10-25
    historical

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Looking for a 4 bedroom home in the village of Warsaw? Or a rental property? This is it. Currently being used as a 3 bedroom with a home office. First floor bath and first floor bedroom and laundry may make this an ideal home for you. Thermopane windows throughout the home is a bonus. Situated on a dead end street make this house a draw if you don't want constant traffic passing by.

22. 2022-10-25
    listed $84,500 Active 385-char remark

    Show marketing remark (385 chars)

    Looking for a 4 bedroom home in the village of Warsaw? Or a rental property? This is it. Currently being used as a 3 bedroom with a home office. First floor bath and first floor bedroom and laundry may make this an ideal home for you. Thermopane windows throughout the home is a bonus. Situated on a dead end street make this house a draw if you don't want constant traffic passing by.

23. 2022-10-04
    listed $84,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,346 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,346 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$3,346
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $3,301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$792
• After-tax cash flow: $3,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warsaw Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629940
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,692
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3718
• State rank: #431 of 590 in NY

Livability — Warsaw

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #4662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warsaw, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,372

Population outlook (Wyoming County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,976 people
• By 2030: 37,826 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 35,585 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 32,841 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 25,920 · -33.5%
• By 2100: 19,082 · -51.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wyoming

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.2) · D 25.9% · R 74.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: -26.1pp · 2024: -48.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.2 2020: R+45.5 2016: R+51.0 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+26.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Current HPI: 263.9109
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+18.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $99,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-12 Sold (MLS) $82,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-02-24 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-02-14 Contingent — WNYREIS
• 2022-10-25 Listed $84,500 WNYREIS
• 2022-10-25 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2022-10-04 Listed $84,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,346 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.