399 Horseshoe Rd

South Mills, NC 27976

$315,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,471 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,947/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $348/mo
• Annual: $4,177/yr
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (6.4% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $295k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $945 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#612 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Camden County Schools (rural): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #29 of 178 in NC (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grandy Primary (math 87% / reading 72%, grade A, #24 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 607 students, 32% FRL); Camden Middle (math 44% / reading 60%, grade C+, #98 of 475 statewide, top 21%, 267 students, 28% FRL); Camden County High (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 464 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 105 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camden County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.0% in South Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.