399 Horseshoe Rd · South Mills, NC 27976

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,471 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2003 1.46 ac lot Est $396k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

You must see this beautiful country home with a huge lot! Three bedrooms with a small FROG over the single attached garage. Located in a quiet subdivision close to the NC/VA line. Large deck overlooking the large backyard. Dog Run along side of the back yard. Concrete driveway with shed along the side. Previous owner did not complete trim work and minor repairs. See photos. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). If property was built prior to 1978, Lead Based Paint Potentially Exists.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Large backyard
• Quiet subdivision

Tags

• HUGE LOT
• QUIET SUBDIVISION
• LARGE DECK
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DOG RUN
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (6.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.0% in South Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#612 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Camden County Schools (rural): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #29 of 178 in NC (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grandy Primary (math 87% / reading 72%, grade A, #24 of 1,410 statewide, top 2%, 607 students, 32% FRL); Camden Middle (math 44% / reading 60%, grade C+, #98 of 475 statewide, top 21%, 267 students, 28% FRL); Camden County High (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 464 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 105 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $945 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Camden County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $294,734 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.74%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $395,699
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Whitetail Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-9%)	13mo	$361,000	$269	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.39% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $7,128
• Equity at exit: $85,350

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $69,387
• Equity at exit: $97,833

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27976

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$197 /mo · $2,366/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$619
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,507

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   status Active
3. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-10
   listed $315,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,583 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,366
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,829
• − Management: −$2,829
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$1,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$250
• After-tax cash flow: $4,427/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Camden County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700600
• Math proficiency: 56% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $59,622
• Composite: 51.97/100
• National rank: #1643
• State rank: #29 of 178 in NC

Livability — South Mills

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #612
• US rank: #22229

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,237

Population outlook (Camden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,980 people
• By 2030: 11,246 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 11,562 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 11,572 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 11,450 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 10,648 · -3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Portuguese 3% Romanian 3%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Camden

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.8) · D 24.2% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -32.0pp · 2024: -50.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.8 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+45.8 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+32.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.39%
• Current HPI: 174.2102
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $315,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,366 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.