809 Beech Ave

Patton, PA 16668

$39,900B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,300 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,170/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $626/mo
• Annual: $7,514/yr
• Cap rate: 25.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.26%
• DSCR: 3.99
• 1% rule: 2.93%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $626 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $276 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#977 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cambria Heights SD (rural): math 27% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #280 of 539 in PA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cambria Heights El Sch (math 32% / reading 59%, grade D-, #801 of 1,518 statewide, top 53%, 535 students, 51% FRL); Cambria Heights Ms (math 12% / reading 62%, grade F, #298 of 512 statewide, top 60%, 306 students, 49% FRL); Cambria Heights Shs (math 67% / reading 77%, grade B+, #39 of 437 statewide, top 9%, 437 students, 31% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.