809 Beech Ave · Patton, PA 16668

$39,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 1900 3,920 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Patton Borough 2 story vinyl is perfect for investors or handyperson! Features large living room and dining room with laminate floors, eat-in kitchen, 1/2 bath and first floor laundry. Second floor includes 2 bedrooms (one with no closet) and full bath. (First floor dining room could serve as a 3rd bedroom. ) Walk-up attic for storage, 1 car detached concrete block garage, front and rear covered porch, fenced yard. Buyer to pay any required municipal sewer testing and/or repair escrow. Buyer responsible for required new water meter pit install. BUYER PAYS BOTH TRANSFER TAXES AND DEED PREP.

Key facts

• First floor laundry
• Large living room
• Dining room

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• FULL BATH
• WALK-UP ATTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $626 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#977 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cambria Heights SD (rural): math 27% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #280 of 539 in PA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $276 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $38,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.26%
• DSCR: 3.99
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $37,467
• Equity at exit: $10,225

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.87×
• Total profit: $87,943
• Equity at exit: $11,251

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16668

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $869/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $626

Break-even live

Break-even rent $378

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $649	-5% $637	+0% $626	+5% $615	+10% $604
Rent	-10% $534	-5% $580	+0% $626	+5% $672	+10% $719
Rate	-1.0pp $646	-0.5pp $636	base $626	+0.5pp $616	+1.0pp $605

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $39,900 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Patton Borough 2 story vinyl is perfect for investors or handyperson! Features large living room and dining room with laminate floors, eat-in kitchen, 1/2 bath and first floor laundry. Second floor includes 2 bedrooms (one with no closet) and full bath. (First floor dining room could serve as a 3rd bedroom. ) Walk-up attic for storage, 1 car detached concrete block garage, front and rear covered porch, fenced yard. Buyer to pay any required municipal sewer testing and/or repair escrow. Buyer responsible for required new water meter pit install. BUYER PAYS BOTH TRANSFER TAXES AND DEED PREP.

2. 2026-04-13
   listed $49,900 Active 596-char remark

   Show marketing remark (596 chars)

   Patton Borough 2 story vinyl is perfect for investors or handyperson! Features large living room and dining room with laminate floors, eat-in kitchen, 1/2 bath and first floor laundry. Second floor includes 2 bedrooms (one with no closet) and full bath. (First floor dining room could serve as a 3rd bedroom. ) Walk-up attic for storage, 1 car detached concrete block garage, front and rear covered porch, fenced yard. Buyer to pay any required municipal sewer testing and/or repair escrow. Buyer responsible for required new water meter pit install. BUYER PAYS BOTH TRANSFER TAXES AND DEED PREP.

3. 2017-11-06
   soldstatus $40,000
4. 2015-06-05
   listed $35,500
5. 2008-02-22
   soldstatus $7,500
6. 2007-11-09
   listed $7,500
7. 1991-01-01
   soldstatus $5,000
8. 1991-01-01
   soldstatus $15,000
9. 1983-01-01
   soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $869 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $869 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$869
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,123
• − Management: −$1,123
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,760
• After-tax cash flow: $5,755/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cambria Heights SD
• NCES district ID: 4204740
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $44,855
• Composite: 38.0/100
• National rank: #4291
• State rank: #280 of 539 in PA

Livability — Patton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #10697

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Patton, PA
• Population (ZIP): 3,620

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Current HPI: 80.4155
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+99.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $39,900 AHARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $49,900 AHARMLS
• 2017-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2015-06-05 Listed $35,500 AHARMLS
• 2008-02-22 Sold (MLS) $7,500 AHARMLS
• 2007-11-09 Listed $7,500 AHARMLS
• 1991-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 1991-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records
• 1983-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $869 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.