4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,632 sqft ·
Built 1993
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 31 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,357/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,358
Tax + insurance
−$388
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$705
Net cashflow
$906/mo
Annual
$10,867/yr
Cap rate
10.49%
Cash-on-cash
14.98%
DSCR
1.67
1% rule
1.30%
Cash to close
$72,520
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $259k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $906 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $251k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 53/100 on livability (#187 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 3.2% in Meadow Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,357/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-51A5VE6SWW2DSQ
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29