138 E Hazeltine Ave

Kenmore, NY 14217

$305,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,870 sqft · Built 1928 · MultiFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,641/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$772
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$555
• Net cashflow: $-285/mo
• Annual: $-3,420/yr
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (13.4% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#114 in NY, #1,843 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, commute F.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Charles A Lindbergh Elementary School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 480 students, 38% FRL); Kenmore West Senior High School (math 74% / reading 57%, grade B, #773 of 1,100 statewide, top 70%, 1,358 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $117k; list at $305k implies a 161% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.0% in Kenmore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.