343 Private Road 2018

West Plains, MO 65775

$149,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · Built 2003 · Other · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,093/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-40/mo
• Annual: $-485/yr
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-485/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (27.1% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#34 in MO, #2,977 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, amenities D.
• Richards R-V (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #187 of 324 in MO (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richards Elem. (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #604 of 1,115 statewide, top 54%, 372 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in West Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.