343 Private Road 2018 · West Plains, MO 65775

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,190 sqft · Other public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2003 1.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Vinyl sided 3 bdrm, 2 bath ranch on 1.58 ac with rural water and CH & A. This property needs repairs.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• 1.9 acre lot
• Built 2003

Tags

• CONCRETE BOARD EXTERIOR
• METAL ROOF
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDING
• APPROXIMATELY 2 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-485/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $109k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in West Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#34 in MO, #2,977 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, amenities D.
• Richards R-V (rural): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #187 of 324 in MO (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richards Elem. (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #604 of 1,115 statewide, top 54%, 372 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,297 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-26,931
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-27,032
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65775

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $664/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,144

Max offer price $142,753

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $2	+0% $-40	+5% $-83	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-84	+0% $-40	+5% $3	+10% $46
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-2	base $-40	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   price $149,900
3. 2026-02-24
   status Active
4. 2026-02-15
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-19
   listed $159,900 Active
6. 2022-09-20
   price $189,900
7. 2015-10-02
   soldstatus 105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (105 chars)

   Vinyl sided 3 bdrm, 2 bath ranch on 1.58 ac with rural water and CH & A. This property needs repairs.

8. 2015-08-19
   listed $19,900 105-char remark

   Show marketing remark (105 chars)

   Vinyl sided 3 bdrm, 2 bath ranch on 1.58 ac with rural water and CH & A. This property needs repairs.

9. 2015-06-03
   listed $28,900
10. 2015-02-20
    listed $42,500
11. 2008-08-27
    soldstatus
12. 2003-06-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $664 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,454 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$790/yr (+$66/mo · 118.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$664
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,049
• − Management: −$1,049
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,154
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$757
• After-tax cash flow: $272/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richards R-V
• NCES district ID: 2926370
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $36,052
• Composite: 31.5/100
• National rank: #5972
• State rank: #187 of 324 in MO

Livability — West Plains

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #2977

Category grades

Amenities D Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 24,950

Population outlook (Howell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,462 people
• By 2030: 37,240 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 34,495 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 31,450 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 23,660 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 16,373 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Howell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.2% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -30.8pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+43.8 2008: R+30.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.99%
• Current HPI: 228.8763
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+252.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $149,900 SOMO
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-02-15 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-01-19 Listed $159,900 SOMO
• 2022-09-20 Price Changed $189,900 SOMO
• 2015-10-02 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2015-08-19 Listed $19,900 SOMO
• 2015-06-03 Listed $28,900 SOMO
• 2015-02-20 Listed $42,500 SOMO
• 2008-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-06-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $664 · +11.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.