3528 Fox Valley Ln

Crandall, TX 75114

$320,589D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,298/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,681
• Tax + insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-147/mo
• Annual: $-1,761/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $89,765

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $321k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (28.3% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $230k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 787 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.