3528 Fox Valley Ln · Crandall, TX 75114

$320,589

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · Land · 55 Days on market

Built 2025 7,841 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Arbors at Eastland - Springsteen Floorplan - This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, nook and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to the covered patio for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in a rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms near the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests, as well as a versatile flex space that can transform to meet the homeowner’s needs. Prices, dimensions and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $321k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Walker El (math 35% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,946 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 663 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 41% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 787 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 14% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $229,789 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-61,418
• Equity at exit: $47,801

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-66,010
• Equity at exit: $27,719

Cash invested: $89,765 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75114

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Active inventory: 787
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,298 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,681
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,264/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,484

Max offer price $294,663

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $35	-5% $-56	+0% $-147	+5% $-238	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-328	-5% $-238	+0% $-147	+5% $-56	+10% $35
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-65	base $-147	+0.5pp $-230	+1.0pp $-314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,147
• Closing costs: $9,618
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2204 Boiling Springs Rd Crandall, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1497	$2,406	$1.61	1d	5	0.60mi
3103 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,729	$1.20	3d	1	0.97mi
2109 Muscovy St Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2300	$2,200	$0.96	25d	1	1.00mi
2505 Milne Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	19d	1	1.01mi
3121 Helix Bay Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,675	$1.16	44d	1	1.02mi
2960 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,000	$1.39	44d	1	1.04mi
3147 Blossom Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	3.0	2177	$2,700	$1.24	44d	1	1.05mi
2973 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,665	$1.16	44d	1	1.06mi
3315 Beckwith Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,685	$1.17	44d	1	1.09mi
3011 Temple Gate Ct Crandall, TX	5.0	3.0	2730	$3,300	$1.21	1d	1	1.13mi
3007 Wallace Wells Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	44d	1	1.13mi
3750 Honey Daisy Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	3.5	2885	$2,750	$0.95	10d	1	1.16mi
3028 Willow Wood Ct Crandall, TX	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,600	$1.47	44d	1	1.19mi
2296 Great Belt Blvd Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	2315	$1,720	$0.74	6d	1	1.19mi
2624 Bartlett St Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	25d	1	1.20mi
2043 Serval Ln Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,100	$1.36	44d	1	1.20mi
2739 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	25d	1	1.29mi
2745 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	25d	1	1.30mi
2513 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	25d	1	1.32mi
2746 Bronte Blvd Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	25d	1	1.33mi
2521 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,825	$1.07	25d	1	1.33mi
2237 Mustang Ghost Trl Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$2,040	$1.05	44d	1	1.34mi
2510 Flight Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	25d	1	1.35mi
2826 Hudson Dr Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,400	$1.46	6d	1	1.35mi
2504 Cornado Way Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,799	$1.25	44d	1	1.38mi
2117 Ocelot St Crandall, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,875	$1.27	44d	1	1.38mi
2409 Fleming Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,845	$1.11	25d	1	1.39mi
3716 Pincoffs Cv Crandall, TX	4.0	2.5	2374	$2,619	$1.10	25d	1	1.45mi
3004 Dakota Trl Crandall, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,300	$1.19	4d	1	1.46mi
4101 Valley Mills Dr Crandall, TX	4.0	2.5	2278	$2,550	$1.12	1d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,589 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,589 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,589 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricestatus $320,589 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-06
   price $281,999
7. 2026-03-01
   status Active
8. 2026-01-25
   status Pending
9. 2026-01-24
   price $318,999
10. 2026-01-06
    listed $281,149 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,264 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,867 · $489/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,603/yr (+$384/mo · 364.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,958
• − Property taxes: −$1,264
• − Insurance: −$1,603
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$9,326
• Taxable loss: −$7,492
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,798
• After-tax cash flow: $37/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crandall ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815510
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,076
• Composite: 35.57/100
• National rank: #4901
• State rank: #351 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crandall

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #10022

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 9,333
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,333
• Household income: $88,013
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.61%
• Current HPI: 196.4773
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $281,999 NTREIS
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-01-25 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $318,999 NTREIS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $281,149 NTREIS