9460 Rocky Crk

Hidden Valley Lake, CA 95457

$253,650C+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,809 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,614/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,330
• Tax + insurance: −$391
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $344/mo
• Annual: $4,130/yr
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.81%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $71,022

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $254k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $254k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#785 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.1% in Hidden Valley Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.