9460 Rocky Crk · Hidden Valley Lake, CA 95457

$253,650

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,809 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1985 21 ac lot $140/sqft · 33% below area Est $379k · 33% under ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

Key facts

• Sustainable garden
• Outdoor fire pit
• 20.68 acre lot

Tags

• SPRAWLING 20.68-ACRE PARADISE
• SUSTAINABLE GARDEN
• MILES OF PERSONAL TRAILS
• OUTDOOR FIRE PIT
• MINUTES FROM LOCAL WINERIES
• CLEAR LAKE ACTIVITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-unit property; No ADU; No common walls
• Financial info: Assessments: unknown
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Utilities: Private water (see remarks); Sewer: private or unknown
• Home design: House; 2 total stories; Entry on level 1; Has a view
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Ranch and pasture lot features; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Cooling available (see remarks); Wood-burning fireplace
• Interior features: Two-level layout; Main level has 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom; Has laundry (see remarks for details); Has cooling (see remarks for details); Has a wood fireplace; Rooms: see remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry available (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $254k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $254k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.1% in Hidden Valley Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#785 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,040 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.81%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $378,744
• List price: $253,650
• Delta: -33.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $30,070
• Equity at exit: $90,196

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $106,340
• Equity at exit: $122,700

Cash invested: $71,022 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95457

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,330
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,422/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,179

Max offer price $253,650

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,412
• Closing costs: $7,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $253,650 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $253,650 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $253,650 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $253,650 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $253,650 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $253,650 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $253,650 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $253,650 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $253,650 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $253,650 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $253,650 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $253,650 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $253,650 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $267,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $267,000 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $267,000 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $267,000 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $267,000 Active 954-char remark
19. 2023-10-03
    status Pending 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

20. 2023-10-02
    soldstatus $285,000 Closed 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

21. 2023-10-02
    soldstatus $285,000 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

22. 2023-10-02
    soldstatus $285,000 Closed Sale

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

23. 2023-10-02
    soldstatus $285,000

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

24. 2023-09-29
    status Pending Sale

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

25. 2023-07-05
    historical Contingent (Show) 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (773 chars)

    Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

26. 2023-06-18
    historical Active Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

27. 2023-04-03
    listed $369,000 Active 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

28. 2023-04-03
    listed $369,000 773-char remark

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

29. 2023-04-03
    listed $369,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (769 chars)

    Peace and tranquility await! Private, off-grid +/- 20.68 acres with 1800+/- sf home. Abundant water is supplied by a spring-fed pond. A solar system with backup batteries supplies electricity to the home. Propane stove and newer propane fridge. Septic system. Water tank and gravity-fed system for house water. The home has 3 woodstoves strategically placed throughout the home in the dining area, living room, and main bedroom. The home has a main bedroom, plus 2 sleeping lofts, a living room and dining area, breakfast nook off the kitchen with french doors leading to a covered deck. Bathroom with clawfoot tub with overhead shower. Washer hook-up in the bathroom. Telephone landline to house and cell service. 2 property roads provide full access to the property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,422 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,422 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,370
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,208
• − Property taxes: −$3,422
• − Insurance: −$1,268
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,510
• − Management: −$2,510
• − Depreciation: −$7,379
• Taxable income: $73
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18
• After-tax cash flow: $4,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Hidden Valley Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #785
• US rank: #22539

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,721
• Population (ZIP): 3,036

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Current HPI: 173.5678
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-31.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $253,650 CRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $267,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-03 Pending — BAREIS
• 2023-10-02 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-02 Sold (MLS) $285,000 CRMLS
• 2023-10-02 Sold (MLS) $285,000 BAREIS
• 2023-09-29 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-07-05 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2023-06-18 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-04-03 Listed $369,000 CRMLS
• 2023-04-03 Listed $369,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,422 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.