243 Lakeside Trl

Ridge, NY 11961

$550,000F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,587/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax + insurance: −$991
• HOA: −$1
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-1,833/mo
• Annual: $-21,992/yr
• Cap rate: 2.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.28%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $154,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (58.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (53.0% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $226k (58.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#932 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 719 students, 44% FRL); Longwood Junior High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,388 students, 48% FRL); Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $431k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.0% in Ridge — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?