243 Lakeside Trl · Ridge, NY 11961

$550,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1953 0.28 ac lot Est $518k · 6% over $1/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Schools +5.2/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience Unparalleled Lakefront Living in this Recently Renovated Ranch nestled in the Highly Sought-after Lake Panamoka Community. Offering Breathtaking Water Views and Direct Lake Access from your Backyard, this home delivers the Ultimate Lakefront Lifestyle. Inside, the Home Features 2 Spacious Bedrooms, 1 Updated Bathroom, Kitchen with Stainless Steel Appliances, and much more. The Open-Concept layout allows for seamless Lake Views from the Main Living Areas, creating a Bright and Airy atmosphere. The Fully Renovated Walkout Basement includes Additional Living Space, Two Bonus Rooms perfect for a Home Office or Guest Accommodations, Laundry, and New Sliding Doors. Multiple Upper and L

Key facts

• Lakefront living
• Ev charger
• Direct lake access

Tags

• LAKEFRONT LIVING
• DIRECT LAKE ACCESS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• TWO BONUS ROOMS
• MULTIPLE UPPER AND LOWER DECKS
• EV CHARGER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (58.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (53.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (58.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.0% in Ridge — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#932 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Longwood Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #235 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 719 students, 44% FRL); Longwood Junior High School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade A-, #101 of 729 statewide, top 15%, 1,388 students, 48% FRL); Longwood High School (math 90% / reading 77%, grade A, #409 of 1,100 statewide, top 39%, 2,977 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $431k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,247 (58.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.28%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 17.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $518,466
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
52 Iroquois Trl	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,290 (-3%)	8mo	$585,000	$453	64
7 Seneca Trl	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,310 (-1%)	19mo	$510,000	$389	64
97 Lakeside Trl	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,406 (+6%)	0mo	$550,000	$391	62
20 Lakeview Trl	0.12mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,152 (-13%)	17mo	$559,000	$485	52
129 Panamoka Trl	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,226 (-8%)	20mo	$475,000	$387	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -43.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-205,764
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -76.1%
• Equity multiple: -1.14×
• Total profit: $-329,131
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11961

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 17.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,587 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$762 /mo · $9,142/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$1
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-1,833

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,907

Max offer price $226,247

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1 · $12/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $550,000 Active
3. 2026-04-04
   historical
4. 2025-12-16
   price $599,998
5. 2025-11-11
   price $625,000
6. 2025-09-02
   price $675,000
7. 2025-07-30
   listed $760,000 Active
8. 2021-09-14
   soldstatus $431,000
9. 2021-03-22
   historical
10. 2021-03-22
    price $461,000
11. 2021-02-10
    listed $419,000 Active
12. 2021-01-31
    historical
13. 2018-09-28
    historical
14. 2018-09-28
    historical
15. 2018-04-22
    listed $99,000 New
16. 2018-03-20
    listed $379,000 New
17. 2012-09-30
    historical
18. 2012-07-02
    listed $314,990
19. 2002-03-05
    soldstatus $225,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,142 · $762/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,219 · $768/mo
• Expected delta: +$76/yr (+$6/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,042
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$9,142
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,483
• − Management: −$2,483
• − HOA: −$12
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$32,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,833
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,159/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Longwood Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619230
• Math proficiency: 61% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $72,748
• Composite: 51.63/100
• National rank: #1703
• State rank: #235 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ridge

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #932
• US rank: #18125

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ridge, NY
• City population: 12,436
• Population (ZIP): 12,436

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Two or more races 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.86%
• Current HPI: 383.4444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+144.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $550,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $599,998 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $675,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-30 Listed $760,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $431,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-22 Price Changed $461,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-10 Listed $419,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-31 Coming Soon — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-22 Listed $99,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-20 Listed $379,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-02 Listed $314,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,142 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.