370 Austin St

Timpson, TX 75975

$113,560D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · Built 1958 · SingleFamily · Pending · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$596
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-299/yr
• Cap rate: 6.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.94%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $31,797

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $114k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-299/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (1.7% below list).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $298 of equity ($785 loan paydown + $-487 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,064 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Timpson ISD (rural): math 28% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #614 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shelby County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $53k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?