Plan 1360 Plan

Houston, TX 77044

$245,995F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 864 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,790/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,435
• Tax + insurance: −$456
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-477/mo
• Annual: $-5,719/yr
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.46%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $76,618

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-477 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (27.2% below list).
• It's been on market 864 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 864 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.