Plan 1360 Plan · Houston, TX 77044

$245,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · SingleFamily · 864 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Open floor plan * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Water-conserving front and rear yard sod to fence * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Den * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 863 days

🏗️ New construction. The $245,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $273,634.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (18.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 864 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,400 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 864 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.92%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $273,634
• List price: $245,995
• Delta: -10.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15630 Pennfield Point Ct	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,360 (0%)	4mo	$235,000	$173	78
13002 Ivory Field Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-9%)	17mo	$269,452	$218	69
12951 Pecan Shores Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+1%)	7mo	$234,999	$172	63
12531 Seybold Cove Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,360 (0%)	15mo	$279,995	$206	57
15838 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,391 (+2%)	13mo	$249,900	$180	50
12538 Oakley Pines Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-9%)	16mo	$284,995	$231	47
12547 Newcastle Park Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+13%)	13mo	$269,000	$175	45
12367 Sterling Oak	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+11%)	12mo	$299,500	$199	41
15010 Strongbow Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+11%)	14mo	$303,040	$201	40
12939 Palm Leaf Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+15%)	14mo	$237,000	$152	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-63,516
• Equity at exit: $58,440

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-95,693
• Equity at exit: $55,092

Cash invested: $76,618 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,754 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,435
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$342 /mo · $4,105/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,394

Max offer price $200,507

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-316	-5% $-411	+0% $-505	+5% $-600	+10% $-694
Rent	-10% $-644	-5% $-575	+0% $-505	+5% $-436	+10% $-367
Rate	-1.0pp $-368	-0.5pp $-436	base $-505	+0.5pp $-576	+1.0pp $-648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,409
• Closing costs: $8,209
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	2d	1	1.28mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,775	$1.24	11d	1	1.34mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 16782 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,403	$1.27	11d	1	1.34mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,743	$1.22	3d	1	1.34mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,371	$1.24	3d	1	1.34mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 16788 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,934	$1.35	44d	1	1.34mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,697	$1.54	17d	1	1.34mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 16792 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,730	$1.57	13d	1	1.34mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,379	$1.25	6d	1	1.34mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,525	$1.49	13d	1	1.42mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,525	$1.49	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,995 Active 864 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,995 Active 861 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,995 Active 860 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,995 Active 859 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,995 Active 858 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,995 Active 856 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,995 Active 855 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,995 Active 852 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,995 Active 851 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,995 Active 850 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $245,995 Active 847 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,995 Active 846 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,995 Active 845 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,995 Active 844 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,995 Active 843 DOM
16. 2024-03-06
    price $245,995 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Open floor plan * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Water-conserving front and rear yard sod to fence * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Den * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

17. 2024-03-01
    status Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Open floor plan * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Water-conserving front and rear yard sod to fence * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Den * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

18. 2023-12-01
    historical 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Open floor plan * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Water-conserving front and rear yard sod to fence * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Den * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

19. 2023-11-08
    listed $242,995 Active 485-char remark

    Show marketing remark (485 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Open floor plan * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom and bedroom 2 * Water-conserving front and rear yard sod to fence * Gas range * Kitchen USB charging port * Den * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,328
• − Property taxes: −$4,105
• − Insurance: −$1,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,684
• − Management: −$1,684
• − Depreciation: −$7,960
• Taxable loss: −$11,080
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,659
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $245,995 Zillow
• 2024-03-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2023-12-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $242,995 Zillow