2106 4th St

Agua Dulce, TX 78330

$75,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,346/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $434/mo
• Annual: $5,210/yr
• Cap rate: 15.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.80%
• DSCR: 2.41
• 1% rule: 1.79%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,202 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Agua Dulce ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #336 of 1,141 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Agua Dulce El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 171 students, 79% FRL); Agua Dulce H S (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 237 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 57% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Agua Dulce ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.