2106 4th St · Agua Dulce, TX 78330

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,582 sqft · Manufactured · 40 Days on market

Built 1972

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't let the outside of this home deter you from showing it. The interior has been totally gutted and redone. There is a 480 sq ft pier and beam addition that has been added to the home that has either 2 bedrooms or 1 bedroom and a formal living room. Home sits on 3 1/2 lots. An added bonus is the sprinkler system. There is a detached garage that would be an awesome workshop or mancave. Covered carport parking for 2 cars. Large concrete driveway. Call today to schedule your appointment!

Key facts

• Sprinkler system
• Detached garage
• Built 1972

Tags

• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• DETACHED GARAGE
• COVERED CARPORT PARKING
• LARGE CONCRETE DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,202 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Agua Dulce ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #336 of 1,141 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Agua Dulce El (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 171 students, 79% FRL); Agua Dulce H S (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 237 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 57% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Agua Dulce ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 1,397 units permitted in Nueces County in 2024 (47 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Nueces County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.80%
• DSCR: 2.41
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $36,776
• Equity at exit: $33,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $92,298
• Equity at exit: $51,972

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78330

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $983/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$122 /mo · $1,468/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $796

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $477	-5% $455	+0% $434	+5% $413	+10% $392
Rent	-10% $328	-5% $381	+0% $434	+5% $487	+10% $540
Rate	-1.0pp $472	-0.5pp $453	base $434	+0.5pp $415	+1.0pp $395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $75,000 Active
18. 2018-08-07
    historical 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Don't let the outside of this home deter you from showing it. The interior has been totally gutted and redone. There is a 480 sq ft pier and beam addition that has been added to the home that has either 2 bedrooms or 1 bedroom and a formal living room. Home sits on 3 1/2 lots. An added bonus is the sprinkler system. There is a detached garage that would be an awesome workshop or mancave. Covered carport parking for 2 cars. Large concrete driveway. Call today to schedule your appointment!

19. 2018-08-07
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Don't let the outside of this home deter you from showing it. The interior has been totally gutted and redone. There is a 480 sq ft pier and beam addition that has been added to the home that has either 2 bedrooms or 1 bedroom and a formal living room. Home sits on 3 1/2 lots. An added bonus is the sprinkler system. There is a detached garage that would be an awesome workshop or mancave. Covered carport parking for 2 cars. Large concrete driveway. Call today to schedule your appointment!

20. 2018-08-06
    soldstatus Closed 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Don't let the outside of this home deter you from showing it. The interior has been totally gutted and redone. There is a 480 sq ft pier and beam addition that has been added to the home that has either 2 bedrooms or 1 bedroom and a formal living room. Home sits on 3 1/2 lots. An added bonus is the sprinkler system. There is a detached garage that would be an awesome workshop or mancave. Covered carport parking for 2 cars. Large concrete driveway. Call today to schedule your appointment!

21. 2018-07-25
    status Pending 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Don't let the outside of this home deter you from showing it. The interior has been totally gutted and redone. There is a 480 sq ft pier and beam addition that has been added to the home that has either 2 bedrooms or 1 bedroom and a formal living room. Home sits on 3 1/2 lots. An added bonus is the sprinkler system. There is a detached garage that would be an awesome workshop or mancave. Covered carport parking for 2 cars. Large concrete driveway. Call today to schedule your appointment!

22. 2018-05-28
    listed $75,000 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    Don't let the outside of this home deter you from showing it. The interior has been totally gutted and redone. There is a 480 sq ft pier and beam addition that has been added to the home that has either 2 bedrooms or 1 bedroom and a formal living room. Home sits on 3 1/2 lots. An added bonus is the sprinkler system. There is a detached garage that would be an awesome workshop or mancave. Covered carport parking for 2 cars. Large concrete driveway. Call today to schedule your appointment!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,372 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$390/yr (+$32/mo · 39.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AO · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,146
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$983
• − Insurance: −$1,843
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $4,354
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,045
• After-tax cash flow: $4,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Agua Dulce ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807530
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $57,974
• Composite: 45.19/100
• National rank: #5785
• State rank: #336 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Agua Dulce

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1202
• US rank: #21027

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Agua Dulce, TX
• Population (ZIP): 429

Population outlook (Nueces County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 418,037 people
• By 2030: 447,123 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 505,911 · +21.0%
• By 2050: 567,522 · +35.8%
• By 2075: 729,686 · +74.6%
• By 2100: 847,087 · +102.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% Two or more races 41% White 20% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Philippines, Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Nueces

• 2024 margin: R (+11.5) · D 43.8% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -4.4pp · 2024: -11.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.5 2020: R+2.9 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $75,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-08-07 Delisted — CBMLS
• 2018-08-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) — CBMLS
• 2018-07-25 Pending — CBMLS
• 2018-05-28 Listed $75,000 CBMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $983 · +39.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.