4432 Hotchkiss St

Fredericksburg, VA 22408

$194,900B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $419/mo
• Annual: $5,022/yr
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $54,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Spotswood Elementary (math 48% / reading 55%, grade C-, #728 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 510 students, 63% FRL); Battlefield Middle (math 37% / reading 64%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 791 students, 66% FRL); Massaponax High (math 57% / reading 84%, grade B+, #150 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 1,736 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 30% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.