4432 Hotchkiss St · Fredericksburg, VA 22408

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,475 sqft · SingleFamily · 29 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition Est $384k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW HOMES IN FREDERICKSBURG!!! Brand homes! This 1,475 sq. ft. 3 BED 2 BATH home is one of its kind in Pineview. This home has many “must have features”! Entering through the craftsman front door you will find a LARGE Kitchen with Frigidaire stainless steel appliances, Duracraft cabinets, great countertop and cabinet space, recessed lighting and Lux windows for natural lighting! The Living room has an accent TV wall that round out the entertainment area of this great floorplan! The split floor plan features a 2nd bathroom for the 2 bedrooms on the opposite side of the house than the primary. Primary features dual sinks, large tub/shower and walk in closet. Verizon Internet Available! Don’t miss out on this great opportunity to OWN just south of Fredericksburg!! Interior photos are of similar model (no furniture or decor included). Park rent is $500/mo

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Craftsman front door
• Duracraft cabinets

Tags

• CRAFTSMAN FRONT DOOR
• DURACRAFT CABINETS
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• LUX WINDOWS
• ACCENT TV WALL
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present; Ground rent listed as annual ground rent in income/expense notes; Construction completed; Excellent property condition
• Financial info: Ground rent exists (monthly payment $500); Ownership includes ground rent

Exterior

• Parking: Crushed stone parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Municipal trash service; 200+ amp electric service; Electric hot water; Fiber optic internet
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story (1 level); Estimated year built
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Batts and blown-in insulation; Crawl space foundation; Asphalt roof; Low-E windows; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Above-grade other structures; Not in a federal flood zone; Irrigation water rights

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Exhaust fan; Freezer; Icemaker; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen island
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level; Entry-level bedroom
• Flooring: Partially carpeted; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with electric backup; Electric heating; Cooling via heat pump
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Combination kitchen/dining area; Combination dining/living area; Crown moldings; Dining area; Kitchen island; Master bath(s); Recessed lighting; Walk-in closet(s); Carpeted areas
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups on the main floor; Washer/Dryer hookups only; Electric water heater

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $194,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$383,500) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $192k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, employment A-, housing B+; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Spotswood Elementary (math 48% / reading 55%, grade C-, #728 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 510 students, 63% FRL); Battlefield Middle (math 37% / reading 64%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 791 students, 66% FRL); Massaponax High (math 57% / reading 84%, grade B+, #150 of 319 statewide, top 47%, 1,736 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 30% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $191,976 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $383,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 Hotchkiss St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-2%)	8mo	$375,000	$260	83
200 Pender St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (-6%)	8mo	$330,000	$237	75
107 Gibson St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+6%)	1mo	$385,000	$247	74
2403 Lafayette Blvd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+7%)	5mo	$367,500	$233	67
201 Stonewall Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,413 (-4%)	8mo	$425,000	$301	65
2401 Lafayette Blvd	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,331 (-10%)	1mo	$292,000	$219	64
6 Juniper Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-8%)	1mo	$365,000	$268	63
209 Stonewall Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,367 (-7%)	8mo	$360,000	$263	60
171 Longstreet Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+4%)	4mo	$384,900	$250	57
315 Azalia Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-5%)	3mo	$345,000	$246	57
207 Hillcrest Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-9%)	8mo	$380,000	$282	47
204 Morningside Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,328 (-10%)	8mo	$380,000	$286	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,622
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $31,549
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22408

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,235 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $553	-5% $486	+0% $419	+5% $351	+10% $284
Rent	-10% $242	-5% $330	+0% $419	+5% $507	+10% $595
Rate	-1.0pp $517	-0.5pp $468	base $419	+0.5pp $368	+1.0pp $317

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7 Farrell Ln Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,700	$1.35	0d	1	0.43mi
118 Farrell Ln Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1280	$1,995	$1.56	5d	1	0.44mi
102 Ridgeway St Fredericksburg, VA	4.0	3.5	1680	$3,062	$1.82	46d	1	0.49mi
125 Hillcrest Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1466	$2,000	$1.36	4d	1	0.52mi
136 Wellington Lakes Dr Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,498	$1.50	4d	1	0.60mi
136 Wellington Lakes Dr Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0	905	$1,693	$1.87	0d	1	0.60mi
726 Olde Greenwich Cir Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1188	$2,000	$1.68	47d	1	0.65mi
727 Olde Greenwich Cir Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1296	$2,395	$1.85	46d	1	0.67mi
408 Deerwood Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1536	$2,250	$1.46	0d	1	0.68mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	1.0	902	$1,699	$1.88	4d	1	0.75mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0	985	$1,996	$2.03	0d	1	0.75mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	1.0	902	$1,439	$1.60	21d	1	0.75mi
1704 Lafayette Blvd Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,699	$1.59	7d	1	0.75mi
310 Azalia Dr Fredericksburg, VA	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,500	$1.35	27d	1	0.76mi
130 Springwood Dr Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	2.5	1100	$2,300	$2.09	0d	1	0.89mi
214 Kings Mill Ct Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	855	$2,229	$2.61	13d	7	0.93mi
214 Kings Mill Ct Fredericksburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	923	$2,274	$2.46	0d	10	0.93mi
1302 Wilcox Ave Fredericksburg, VA	4.0	3.5	1870	$2,662	$1.42	46d	1	1.08mi
204 Stratford Ave Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1572	$2,400	$1.53	8d	1	1.10mi
1308 Saunders Dr Fredericksburg, VA	4.0	3.5	1870	$2,495	$1.33	1d	1	1.11mi
304 Garfield Ct Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,945	$1.30	1d	1	1.27mi
1 Greenbrier Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	764	$2,153	$2.82	0d	21	1.27mi
1113 Rampart Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1570	$2,500	$1.59	13d	1	1.28mi
1318 Trestle Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1437	$2,600	$1.81	13d	1	1.29mi
1015 Rampart Dr Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1830	$2,500	$1.37	13d	1	1.30mi
322 Clay St Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1564	$2,350	$1.50	27d	1	1.33mi
2027 Track Cir Fredericksburg, VA	3.0	3.0	1570	$2,600	$1.66	0d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $194,900 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,900 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,900 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $194,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $194,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,900 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-24
    listed $194,900 Active
17. 2024-11-20
    soldstatus $181,900 Closed 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    NEW HOMES IN FREDERICKSBURG!!! Brand homes! This 1,475 sq. ft. 3 BED 2 BATH home is one of its kind in Pineview. This home has many “must have features”! Entering through the craftsman front door you will find a LARGE Kitchen with Frigidaire stainless steel appliances, Duracraft cabinets, great countertop and cabinet space, recessed lighting and Lux windows for natural lighting! The Living room has an accent TV wall that round out the entertainment area of this great floorplan! The split floor plan features a 2nd bathroom for the 2 bedrooms on the opposite side of the house than the primary. Primary features dual sinks, large tub/shower and walk in closet. Verizon Internet Available! Don’t miss out on this great opportunity to OWN just south of Fredericksburg!! Interior photos are of similar model (no furniture or decor included). Park rent is $500/mo

18. 2024-11-12
    listed $194,900 Active 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    NEW HOMES IN FREDERICKSBURG!!! Brand homes! This 1,475 sq. ft. 3 BED 2 BATH home is one of its kind in Pineview. This home has many “must have features”! Entering through the craftsman front door you will find a LARGE Kitchen with Frigidaire stainless steel appliances, Duracraft cabinets, great countertop and cabinet space, recessed lighting and Lux windows for natural lighting! The Living room has an accent TV wall that round out the entertainment area of this great floorplan! The split floor plan features a 2nd bathroom for the 2 bedrooms on the opposite side of the house than the primary. Primary features dual sinks, large tub/shower and walk in closet. Verizon Internet Available! Don’t miss out on this great opportunity to OWN just south of Fredericksburg!! Interior photos are of similar model (no furniture or decor included). Park rent is $500/mo

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,145
• − Management: −$2,145
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $2,041
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$490
• After-tax cash flow: $4,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1,475 sq. ft. home in Fredericksburg is in good condition with modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior. It's ready for a new owner to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior
• Both window treatments — improves energy efficiency and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior ↑
• Both window treatments — improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #10735

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• City population: 207,206
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 31,586
• Household income: $110,112
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.72%
• Current HPI: 259.5759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $194,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-20 Sold (MLS) $181,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-11-12 Listed $194,900 BRIGHT MLS