3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
1,794 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Townhouse
· Active
· 126 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,218/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$341
HOA
−$365
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$466
Net cashflow
$-421/mo
Annual
$-5,055/yr
Cap rate
4.49%
Cash-on-cash
-6.45%
DSCR
0.71
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$78,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (26.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (20.7% below list).
It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $205k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#16 in MO, #1,519 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living F.
Parkway C-2 (suburban): math 49% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #18 of 324 in MO (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $142k; list at $280k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.7% in Creve Coeur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-54DDCE30CV44GC
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29