3809 Legend Creek Dr

Pace, FL 32571

$94,500B+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,511/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $605/mo
• Annual: $7,265/yr
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.46%
• DSCR: 2.22
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $26,460

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: S. S. Dixon Intermediate School (math 73% / reading 67%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 920 students, 40% FRL); Thomas L Sims Middle School (math 77% / reading 65%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,098 students, 34% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $94k implies a 845% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 4.4% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.