3809 Legend Creek Dr · Pace, FL 32571

$94,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1998 0.31 ac lot Est $155k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom Home on a Beautifully Landscaped Oversized Lot Don't miss this opportunity to own a solid 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home situated on a large, beautifully landscaped lot with mature plantings and plenty of outdoor space to enjoy. This home offers a comfortable layout with spacious living areas and great potential for personalization. The master bathroom is in need of remodel, giving the next owner the chance to add their own style and value. Outside, you'll find a rear deck with a strong, solid frame already in place. Replacing the deck boards will restore this space into a wonderful area for entertaining, relaxing, or enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Whe

Key facts

• Mature plantings
• Outdoor space
• Rear deck

Tags

• LANDSCAPED OVERSIZED LOT
• MATURE PLANTINGS
• REAR DECK
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.31 acres (dimensions approx. 142 x 117); Building area about 924 square feet; Resale property; not new construction; Road responsibility: county maintained
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Front entrance parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Mobile/Manufactured or Modular home; Single-story
• Construction: Off-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Paved road access (county maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11 x 9)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Living and dining combined

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $94k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $94k).
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: S. S. Dixon Intermediate School (math 73% / reading 67%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 920 students, 40% FRL); Thomas L Sims Middle School (math 77% / reading 65%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,098 students, 34% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $653 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $94k implies a 845% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $94,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.46%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $155,232
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3908 Legend Creek Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	840 (-9%)	23mo	$141,000	$168	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $22,807
• Equity at exit: $14,090

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $67,712
• Equity at exit: $8,171

Cash invested: $26,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,511 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$496
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $641/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $745

Max offer price $94,500

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $659	-5% $632	+0% $605	+5% $579	+10% $552
Rent	-10% $486	-5% $546	+0% $605	+5% $665	+10% $725
Rate	-1.0pp $653	-0.5pp $629	base $605	+0.5pp $581	+1.0pp $556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,625
• Closing costs: $2,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4716 Chumuckla Hwy Unit 3903 Pace, FL	3.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	25d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $94,500 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $94,500 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-07
   listed $99,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $641 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 22.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,293
• − Property taxes: −$641
• − Insurance: −$472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,451
• − Management: −$1,451
• − Depreciation: −$2,749
• Taxable income: $6,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,458
• After-tax cash flow: $5,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1075.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $99,900 PARMLS
• 2003-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records
• 1992-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records
• 1992-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $641 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.