46 Comanche Dr

Buffalo Springs, TX 79404

$129,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,186 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 196 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,396/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$546
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-120/mo
• Annual: $-1,435/yr
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.97%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (8.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#541 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Slaton ISD (town): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #683 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.6% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $94k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?